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US Politic campaign
Intervew of Nicola Zichella to OSCE on date 5 march 2008
Anthony Dworkin
Senior Policy Fellow
European Council on Foreign Relations
Dear Mr Anthony Dvorkin Senior Policy Fellow of the European Council on Foreign Relations,
senator Barack Obama has losed in the two biggest states of US, they will have to wait for august 2008 and the democrat convention will decide who will run for the white house.
Hillary and Obama will not reach the quorum of votes needed to wind the democrat nomination.
In your opinion who will be the final winner to run for the Presidency?
Will this influence negatively the democrats?, while senator Mc Cain has a good vantage because yesterday he won definitevely in 4 states.
Who will be on your opinion the next US president?
The US elections, here are my thoughts. The victory of Hillary Clinton in Ohio and the Texas primary means the race will go on at least until Pennsylvania in six weeks. Obama remains ahead in the number of delegates acquired through the primaries and it seems almost impossible that Clinton will catch up with him. That means that her only hope of winning the nomination is to persuade the “superdelegates” who represent the party establishment that they should opt for her rather than him. It will be hard for the superdelegates to throw their weight to the candidate who is behind after the primary process, and the only way Clinton can get them to do it is to continue raising doubts about Obama’s electability. The fact that she has won the big states – esp Ohio and California – gives her an opening. Also there is a feeling now in the US that Obama has perhaps had too easy a ride from the meida, he is facing new scrutiny and that may put him on the defensive. Unfortunately for the Democrats, this means that the candidates’ attacks on each other will only intensify. That is good news for McCain, though he has his own problems with some sections of the Republican base. I will not be foolhardy enough to predict a winner for the Presidential race.
I hope this helps. Please come back to me if you want any further comments on any of this.
I’m not going to be drawn on this – it’s simply too early to predict. Although the Democrats start with an advantage, due above all to the unpopularity of President Bush, McCain is a plausible candidate who should not be ruled out.
Anthony
Best wishes,
Anthony
Anthony Dworkin
Senior Policy Fellow
European Council on Foreign Relations